· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Donau vs Traiskirchen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Donau and 2.31 for Traiskirchen, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Traiskirchen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Traiskirchen win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 2.31
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Donau home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Traiskirchen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Traiskirchen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Donau and 2.31 for Traiskirchen, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–16.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.70 | 34.1% | 36.0% | 2.78 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 37.7% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 61.2% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 80.5% | 80.6% | 1.24 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 19.6% | 19.4% | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.9% | 80.7% | 1.24 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Donau
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Traiskirchen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Horn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Parndorf · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-1 (D)
Traiskirchen
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Oberwart · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloggnitz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Horn · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Krems / Rehberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Ost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | Oberwart | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Wiener SC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Scheiblingkirchen | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
| 5 | Traiskirchen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Wiener Viktoria | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Krems / Rehberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Fach-Donaufeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Parndorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Leobendorf | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Favoritner AC | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Donau | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Gloggnitz | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | SV Horn | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Traiskirchen win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.