Moorends Miners Welfare · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Doncaster Belles W vs Mansfield Town W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Doncaster Belles W and 1.13 for Mansfield Town W, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Doncaster Belles W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Doncaster Belles W win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Doncaster Belles W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Doncaster Belles W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Doncaster Belles W and 1.13 for Mansfield Town W, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Doncaster Belles W
- 2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs St Helens W · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull United W · 4-0 (W)
- 2023-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rugby Borough W · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town W · 4-0 (W)
- 2022-11-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town W · 0-3 (L)
Mansfield Town W
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luton Town W · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Doncaster Belles W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Doncaster Belles W win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.