Eco-Power Stadium · Referee E. Duckworth · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.95 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Middlesbrough win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Doncaster home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 20% / 22% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Doncaster and 1.95 for Middlesbrough, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.50 | 63.0% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.6% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.30 | 40.7% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 43.4% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 80.0% | 80.0% | 1.25 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.59 | 58.6% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.7% | 21.7% | 4.61 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.3% | 78.3% | 1.28 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.55 | 37.0% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Doncaster
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
Middlesbrough
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Middlesbrough win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.