Eco-Power Stadium · Referee Z. Kennard-Kettle · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Doncaster vs Notts County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.58 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Notts County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Doncaster home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Notts County away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Doncaster
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
Notts County
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bradford · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Huddersfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Doncaster · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 2-1 Notts County (League Two)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 1-1 Notts County (League Two)
- 2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 0-3 Notts County (League Two)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 1-3 Notts County (League Two)
- 2018-11-14T19:45:00.000Z · Doncaster 2-4 Notts County (EFL Trophy)
- 2017-03-14T19:45:00.000Z · Doncaster 3-1 Notts County (League Two)
- 2016-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 1-0 Notts County (League Two)
- 2015-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Doncaster 1-2 Notts County (League One)
- 2015-01-20T19:45:00.000Z · Doncaster 0-0 Notts County (League One)
- 2014-12-09T19:30:00.000Z · Doncaster 0-1 Notts County (EFL Trophy)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.