· Analysis updated 09:13 UTC
Dong Thap vs PVF-CAND Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Dong Thap and 1.10 for PVF-CAND, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Dong Thap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dong Thap home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PVF-CAND away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dong Thap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Dong Thap and 1.10 for PVF-CAND, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Dong Thap
- 2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bóng đá Huế · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ho Chi Minh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Văn Hiến · 1-0 (W)
PVF-CAND
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bắc Ninh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Than Quang Ninh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Pho Hien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Văn Hiến | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Dong Thap | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Than Quang Ninh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Binh Dinh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Lam Dong | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Bóng đá Huế | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Long An | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.