Estadio Dorados · Referee A. Lopez · Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Dorados vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Dorados and 1.91 for Mineros de Zacatecas, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Dorados the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorados home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mineros de Zacatecas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Dorados
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Durango · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tepatitlán · 4-1 (W)
Mineros de Zacatecas
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Piratas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tepatitlán · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monarcas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs CA La Paz · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T01:00:00.000Z · Dorados 2-2 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2026-01-17T03:00:00.000Z · Dorados 2-1 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · Dorados 0-3 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-01-12T03:05:00.000Z · Dorados 0-2 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-07-28T01:00:00.000Z · Dorados 0-1 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-03-23T23:00:00.000Z · Dorados 1-3 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-08-16T03:05:00.000Z · Dorados 4-0 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-01-11T03:05:00.000Z · Dorados 1-1 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-09-22T02:05:00.000Z · Dorados 4-1 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-03-10T03:05:00.000Z · Dorados 0-1 Mineros de Zacatecas (Liga de Expansión MX)
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancún | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -27 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.