Clayson Stadium · Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Dorchester Town vs Poole Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dorchester Town and 1.63 for Poole Town, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Poole Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorchester Town home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poole Town away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poole Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Dorchester Town and 1.63 for Poole Town, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Dorchester Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brixham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Larkhall Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungerford Town · 0-0 (D)
Poole Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Didcot Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bracknell Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Basingstoke Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.