· Analysis updated 06:34 UTC
Dordoi Bishkek vs OshMU Aldier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Dordoi Bishkek and 1.35 for OshMU Aldier, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Dordoi Bishkek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dordoi Bishkek win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dordoi Bishkek home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OshMU Aldier away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–06.8%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Dordoi Bishkek
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muras United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ozgon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OshMU Aldier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Abdish-Ata · 4-0 (W)
OshMU Aldier
- 2026-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asiagoal · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishkek City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Talant · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 2-2 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2026-05-01T14:30:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 1-2 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 2-2 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2025-03-04T09:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 0-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2024-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 2-1 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2024-06-25T12:30:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 1-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2024-04-08T10:30:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 4-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2023-08-24T12:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 4-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2023-08-11T12:00:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 3-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
- 2023-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · Dordoi Bishkek 2-0 OshMU Aldier (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 58 |
| 2 | Alga | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 56 |
| 3 | Ozgon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 54 |
| 4 | Muras United | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | Asia Talas | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 52 |
| 6 | Alay | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 41 |
| 7 | Bishkek City | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 36 |
| 8 | Neftchi | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | -6 | 36 |
| 9 | Talant | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
| 10 | Toktogul | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Dordoi Bishkek | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 26 | 6 | 11 | 9 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -19 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -11 | 24 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -30 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 27 | 1 | 7 | 19 | -50 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dordoi Bishkek win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.