· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Dordrecht vs Lusail City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.72 for Lusail City, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Lusail City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lusail City win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dordrecht home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusail City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusail City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Dordrecht and 1.72 for Lusail City, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Dordrecht
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Emmen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC OSS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-2 (L)
Lusail City
- 2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wakrah · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lusail City win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.