Meadowbank · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Dorking Wanderers vs Braintree Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Dorking Wanderers and 1.92 for Braintree, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Dorking Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorking Wanderers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Braintree away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dorking Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Dorking Wanderers and 1.92 for Braintree, a combined 4.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Dorking Wanderers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
Braintree
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Walton & Hersham · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Ebbsfleet United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Weston-super-Mare | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 13 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 14 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 16 | Maidenhead | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Horsham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.