· Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Dorking Wanderers and 1.56 for Chatham Town, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Dorking Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dorking Wanderers win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorking Wanderers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chatham Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dorking Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Dorking Wanderers and 1.56 for Chatham Town, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Dorking Wanderers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
Chatham Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Berkhamsted · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Eastbourne Borough · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dorking Wanderers win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.