Meadowbank · Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Dorking Wanderers and 1.50 for Maidstone Utd, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Maidstone Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maidstone Utd win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorking Wanderers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maidstone Utd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Dorking Wanderers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
Maidstone Utd
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidenhead · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 2-3 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 1-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 3-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2025-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 1-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2024-11-05T19:45:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 1-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2022-12-13T19:45:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 3-2 Maidstone Utd (National League)
- 2022-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 4-2 Maidstone Utd (National League)
- 2022-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 1-0 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2021-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · Dorking Wanderers 2-0 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maidstone Utd win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.