Dorogi FC vs Komárom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Dorogi FC and 2.10 for Komárom, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Komárom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Komárom win

54.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dorogi FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Komárom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dorogi FC win24%

Draw21%

Komárom win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–19.0%
0–27.0%
0–16.7%
1–36.6%

Recent form

Dorogi FC

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haladás VSE · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puskás II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 0-2 (L)

Komárom

2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs MTE 1904 · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ugod · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pápai Perutz · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-1 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2025-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 3-3 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2025-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 0-3 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2024-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 2-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2024-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-1 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2023-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 0-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
2017-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 2-0 Komárom (Magyar Kupa)

NB III - Northwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	11	8	2	1	22	26
2	Tatabánya	11	8	2	1	20	26
3	Haladás VSE	11	7	4	0	21	25
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	6	2	3	1	20
5	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	5	18
6	Bicskei	11	6	0	5	3	18
7	Puskás II	11	5	1	5	3	16
8	MTE 1904	11	4	4	3	3	16
9	Komárom	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Gyori ETO II	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Veszprém	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Pápai Perutz	11	3	2	6	-12	11
14	Király SZE	11	1	4	6	-11	7
15	Balatonalmádi	11	1	2	8	-23	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Komárom win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.