Buzanszky Jeno Stadion · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Dorogi FC vs Komárom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Dorogi FC and 0.97 for Komárom, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Dorogi FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dorogi FC win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorogi FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Komárom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Dorogi FC
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haladás VSE · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puskás II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 0-2 (L)
Komárom
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs MTE 1904 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ugod · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pápai Perutz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-1 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2025-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 3-3 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2025-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 0-3 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2024-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 2-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2024-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 1-1 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2023-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 0-0 Komárom (NB III - Northwest)
- 2017-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Dorogi FC 2-0 Komárom (Magyar Kupa)
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haladás VSE | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Dorogi FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 23 |
| 3 | Tatabánya | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | MTE 1904 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Sopron | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Bicskei | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Komárom | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Gyori ETO II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Puskás II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Pápai Perutz | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Veszprém | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -25 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dorogi FC win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.