· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Dorostol vs Chernolomets 1919 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Dorostol and 2.15 for Chernolomets 1919, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Chernolomets 1919 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chernolomets 1919 win
68.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorostol home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chernolomets 1919 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernolomets 1919 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 13% / 19% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Dorostol and 2.15 for Chernolomets 1919, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–38.7%
Recent form
Dorostol
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte · 3-0 (W)
Chernolomets 1919
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Riltzi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Novi Pazar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Varna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aksakovo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chernolomets 1919 win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.