· Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Dorostol vs Ludogorets III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.57 expected goals for Dorostol and 2.83 for Ludogorets III, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Ludogorets III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ludogorets III win
83.6% probability
Expected goals
0.57 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dorostol home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ludogorets III away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.3%
- 0–312.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–48.9%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Dorostol
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte · 3-0 (W)
Ludogorets III
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Devnya 2005 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Tervel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-9 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 1-1 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-2 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-1 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-2 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-12-16T12:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-6 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-2 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 2-1 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 0-6 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
- 2021-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Dorostol 2-3 Ludogorets III (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ludogorets III win, at 83.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.