Miguel Morales · Analysis updated 13:11 UTC
Douglas Haig vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Douglas Haig and 0.83 for 9 de Julio Rafaela, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Douglas Haig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Douglas Haig win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Douglas Haig home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
9 de Julio Rafaela away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Douglas Haig
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-1 (W)
9 de Julio Rafaela
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 0-0 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 2-1 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-17T18:30:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 0-2 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 1-2 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-29T19:15:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 0-1 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 1-0 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 0-4 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-03-23T23:30:00.000Z · Douglas Haig 1-1 9 de Julio Rafaela (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Douglas Haig win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.