Dover vs Chelmsford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dover and 1.40 for Chelmsford City, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Dover the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dover home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelmsford City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dover to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Dover and 1.40 for Chelmsford City, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dover win39%

Draw25%

Chelmsford City win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
2–18.5%
1–08.4%
1–28.2%
0–18.1%

Recent form

Dover

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 4-2 (W)

Chelmsford City

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	20	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	7	2	4	3	23
5	Salisbury	12	6	4	2	12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	6	2	4	7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	6	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	5	3	4	3	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	0	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	2	9	0	6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	3	5	5	-3	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	-9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	3	4	6	-5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	-12	13
20	Chesham United	12	3	1	8	-10	10
21	Braintree	12	3	1	8	-15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	-16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	-18	8
24	Slough Town	13	1	1	11	-21	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.