Crabble Athletic Ground · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Dover and 1.93 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Dover the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dover win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dover home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorking Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dover to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Dover and 1.93 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.8%
Recent form
Dover
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 4-2 (W)
Dorking Wanderers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Dover 1-1 Dorking Wanderers (National League - South)
- 2026-02-10T19:45:00.000Z · Dover 0-2 Dorking Wanderers (National League - South)
- 2025-10-21T18:45:00.000Z · Dover 2-2 Dorking Wanderers (National League - South)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dover win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.