Crabble Athletic Ground · Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Dover vs Tonbridge Angels Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dover and 1.62 for Tonbridge Angels, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Tonbridge Angels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dover home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tonbridge Angels away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.3% | 32.7% | 3.06 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 66.4% | 67.3% | 1.49 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.2% | 75.9% | 1.32 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 64.2% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.30 | 39.5% | 40.0% | 2.50 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 57.6% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 43.2% | 43.2% | 2.31 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.4% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.60 | 35.8% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 60.5% | 60.0% | 1.67 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 58.4% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dover
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 4-2 (W)
Tonbridge Angels
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelmsford City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidenhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · Dover 0-1 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2026-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Dover 2-0 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Dover 1-2 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2024-01-23T19:45:00.000Z · Dover 1-2 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2023-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · Dover 0-1 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2023-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Dover 0-4 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2022-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Dover 1-2 Tonbridge Angels (National League - South)
- 2021-08-07T14:00:00.000Z · Dover 4-0 Tonbridge Angels (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2012-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Dover 2-1 Tonbridge Angels (FA Cup)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.