Downham Town vs Grays Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Downham Town and 1.14 for Grays Athletic, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Downham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Downham Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grays Athletic away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Downham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Downham Town and 1.14 for Grays Athletic, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Downham Town win36%

Draw28%

Grays Athletic win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–011.6%
0–111.5%
0–010.1%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Downham Town

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge City · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brightlingsea Regent · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mildenhall Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witham Town · 1-0 (W)

Grays Athletic

2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leiston · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorleston · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lowestoft Town · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maldon & Tiptree	42	30	7	5	64	97
2	Felixstowe & Walton Utd	42	30	7	5	53	97
3	Waltham Abbey	42	24	8	10	38	80
4	Stanway Rovers	42	22	11	9	26	77
5	Redbridge	42	21	8	13	18	71
6	Gorleston	42	22	5	15	3	71
7	Bowers & Pitsea	42	19	11	12	32	68
8	Wroxham	42	19	10	13	7	67
9	Witham Town	42	17	11	14	9	62
10	Walthamstow	42	16	10	16	6	58
11	Tilbury	42	15	13	14	3	58
12	Concord Rangers	42	16	8	18	-2	56
13	Cambridge City	42	14	14	14	9	56
14	Brightlingsea Regent	42	16	8	18	-2	56
15	Newmarket Town	42	15	9	18	0	54
16	Lowestoft Town	42	14	7	21	-22	49
17	Takeley	42	13	8	21	-29	47
18	Grays Athletic	42	12	8	22	-16	44
19	Mildenhall Town	42	12	5	25	-28	41
20	Downham Town	42	8	13	21	-29	37
21	Heybridge Swifts	42	7	7	28	-56	28
22	Brantham Athletic	42	4	4	34	-84	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.