Downham Town vs Stanway Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Downham Town and 1.72 for Stanway Rovers, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Stanway Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stanway Rovers win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Downham Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stanway Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stanway Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Downham Town and 1.72 for Stanway Rovers, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Downham Town win19%

Draw24%

Stanway Rovers win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.8%
1–111.3%
0–211.0%
1–29.7%
0–07.4%

Recent form

Downham Town

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge City · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brightlingsea Regent · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mildenhall Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witham Town · 1-0 (W)

Stanway Rovers

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Downham Town 2-2 Stanway Rovers (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)
2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Downham Town 3-2 Stanway Rovers (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)

Non League Div One - Isthmian North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maldon & Tiptree	42	30	7	5	64	97
2	Felixstowe & Walton Utd	42	30	7	5	53	97
3	Waltham Abbey	42	24	8	10	38	80
4	Stanway Rovers	42	22	11	9	26	77
5	Redbridge	42	21	8	13	18	71
6	Gorleston	42	22	5	15	3	71
7	Bowers & Pitsea	42	19	11	12	32	68
8	Wroxham	42	19	10	13	7	67
9	Witham Town	42	17	11	14	9	62
10	Walthamstow	42	16	10	16	6	58
11	Tilbury	42	15	13	14	3	58
12	Concord Rangers	42	16	8	18	-2	56
13	Cambridge City	42	14	14	14	9	56
14	Brightlingsea Regent	42	16	8	18	-2	56
15	Newmarket Town	42	15	9	18	0	54
16	Lowestoft Town	42	14	7	21	-22	49
17	Takeley	42	13	8	21	-29	47
18	Grays Athletic	42	12	8	22	-16	44
19	Mildenhall Town	42	12	5	25	-28	41
20	Downham Town	42	8	13	21	-29	37
21	Heybridge Swifts	42	7	7	28	-56	28
22	Brantham Athletic	42	4	4	34	-84	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stanway Rovers win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.