Makario Stadium · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Doxa vs Iraklis Yerolakkou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Doxa and 1.33 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Doxa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Doxa win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Doxa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iraklis Yerolakkou away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Doxa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Doxa and 1.33 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Doxa
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Deryneia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs APEA · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayia Napa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs MEAP Nisou · 2-0 (W)
Iraklis Yerolakkou
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ASIL Lysi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayia Napa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs APEA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Doxa 1-0 Iraklis Yerolakkou (2. Division)
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Doxa win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.