· Analysis updated 19:51 UTC
Drøbak / Frogn vs Ørn Horten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Drøbak / Frogn and 1.88 for Ørn Horten, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Drøbak / Frogn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Drøbak / Frogn win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drøbak / Frogn home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ørn Horten away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drøbak / Frogn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Drøbak / Frogn and 1.88 for Ørn Horten, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Drøbak / Frogn
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjørkelangen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Raelingen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fram · 3-4 (L)
Ørn Horten
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oppsal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjørkelangen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Flint · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Drøbak / Frogn 1-1 Ørn Horten (3. Division - Girone 6)
- 2025-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · Drøbak / Frogn 4-3 Ørn Horten (3. Division - Girone 6)
- 2025-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Drøbak / Frogn 0-1 Ørn Horten (3. Division - Girone 6)
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 59 |
| 2 | Elverum | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 53 |
| 3 | Råde | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 46 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 44 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Raelingen | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Lyn II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Oppsal | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 10 | Sandefjord II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| 12 | Fram | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | -83 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24 | -89 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Drøbak / Frogn win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.