· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Dravinja vs Bistrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dravinja and 2.35 for Bistrica, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Bistrica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bistrica win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dravinja home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bistrica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bistrica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Dravinja and 2.35 for Bistrica, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–37.6%
Recent form
Dravinja
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Ljubljana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brežice · 1-1 (D)
Bistrica
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bistrica win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.