Tuba Astro Turf · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Dreams vs Heart of Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dreams and 1.46 for Heart of Lions, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Dreams the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dreams win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dreams home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart of Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dreams to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Dreams and 1.46 for Heart of Lions, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Dreams
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vision · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Port City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hearts of Oak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bechem United · 0-1 (L)
Heart of Lions
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bibiani Gold Stars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berekum Chelsea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashanti Gold · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Apostles · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dreams | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 2 | Nations | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Medeama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Aduana Stars | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Heart of Lions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Berekum Chelsea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Attram de Visser | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Techiman Liberty | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Samartex | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | True Life | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Swedru All Blacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Tamale City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Inter Allies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Real Tamale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Eleven Wonders | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dreams win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.