Tuba Astro Turf · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Dreams vs Medeama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Dreams and 0.88 for Medeama, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dreams the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dreams win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dreams home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Medeama away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 50.5% vs market 44.9%, edge +5.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +5.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.2% | 39.3% | 2.54 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 21.8% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 60.7% | 60.7% | 1.65 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.1% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.5% | 17.2% | 5.81 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.7% | 82.8% | 1.21 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 49.5% | 2.02 | -5.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dreams
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vision · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Port City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hearts of Oak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bechem United · 0-1 (L)
Medeama
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Port City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basake Holy Stars · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dreams · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vision · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TP Mazembe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 2-2 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 3-2 Medeama (Cup)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 2-1 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2025-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · Dreams 1-2 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 4-2 Medeama (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · Dreams 0-4 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 1-0 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2024-03-24T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 0-0 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2023-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 2-1 Medeama (Premier League)
- 2023-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · Dreams 2-3 Medeama (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Karela | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vision | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Debibi United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dreams win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.