· Analysis updated 19:39 UTC
Drina Zvornik vs Rudar Prijedor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Drina Zvornik and 0.69 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Drina Zvornik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Drina Zvornik win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drina Zvornik home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rudar Prijedor away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drina Zvornik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Drina Zvornik and 0.69 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 60.1% vs market 47.3%, edge +12.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +12.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.38 | 39.3% | 40.5% | 2.47 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 59.2% | 59.5% | 1.68 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.7% | 4.05 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 84.2% | 84.2% | 1.19 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 6.33 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.6% | 75.3% | 1.33 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 39.9% | 2.51 | -12.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Drina Zvornik
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Omarska · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Prijedor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska Foča · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavija · 3-0 (W)
Rudar Prijedor
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Drina Zvornik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Drina Zvornik win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.