· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Drita vs Gjilani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Drita and 0.94 for Gjilani, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Drita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drita home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gjilani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Drita
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 0-1 (L)
Gjilani
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Drita 0-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Drita 0-2 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2026-03-22T12:00:00.000Z · Drita 1-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-12-14T12:00:00.000Z · Drita 1-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · Drita 2-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Drita 0-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-03-27T13:00:00.000Z · Drita 4-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-12-15T12:00:00.000Z · Drita 0-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Drita 1-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · Drita 1-2 Gjilani (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.