· Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Drita vs Malisheva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Drita and 1.55 for Malisheva, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Malisheva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malisheva win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drita home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malisheva away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malisheva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Drita and 1.55 for Malisheva, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Drita
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 0-1 (L)
Malisheva
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballkani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malisheva win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.