· Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Drochtersen/Assel II vs Hemmingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Drochtersen/Assel II and 1.59 for Hemmingen, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Drochtersen/Assel II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Drochtersen/Assel II win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drochtersen/Assel II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hemmingen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drochtersen/Assel II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Drochtersen/Assel II and 1.59 for Hemmingen, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Drochtersen/Assel II
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilhelmshaven · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 1-2 (L)
Hemmingen
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bersenbrück · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heeslinger SC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Wilhelmshaven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Borussia Hildesheim | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Spelle-Venhaus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Nordhorn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Verden 04 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Drochtersen/Assel II win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.