Weavers Park · Referee N. Doyle · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.56 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Drogheda United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundalk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drogheda United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Drogheda United and 1.56 for Dundalk, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Drogheda United
Dundalk
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Bohemians | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 62 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athl. | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 47 |
| 6 | Galway United | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 | Dundalk | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | -6 | 42 |
| 8 | Waterford | 35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | -8 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 35 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -38 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.