Weavers Park · Referee M. Lynch · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.68 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives St Patrick's Athl. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Patrick's Athl. win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St Patrick's Athl. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Patrick's Athl. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Drogheda United and 1.68 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Patrick's Athl. win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.