· Analysis updated 02:32 UTC
Drukpa vs Paro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Drukpa and 3.02 for Paro, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Paro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paro win
75.7% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 3.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drukpa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 11% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Drukpa and 3.02 for Paro, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–37.4%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–46.2%
Recent form
Drukpa
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ugyen Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tensung · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RTC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thimphu · 1-2 (L)
Paro
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paro win, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.