· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Drukpa vs Thimphu City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Drukpa and 2.38 for Thimphu City, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Thimphu City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thimphu City win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Drukpa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thimphu City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thimphu City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Drukpa and 2.38 for Thimphu City, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Drukpa
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ugyen Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tensung · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RTC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thimphu · 1-2 (L)
Thimphu City
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ugyen Academy · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · Drukpa 2-2 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2026-05-18T12:00:00.000Z · Drukpa 1-1 Thimphu City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thimphu City win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.