· Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
DSC vs Stade de Mbour Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for DSC and 1.05 for Stade de Mbour, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Stade de Mbour the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
DSC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade de Mbour away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
DSC
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gorée · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guédiawaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teungueth · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 0-3 (L)
Stade de Mbour
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wally Daan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teungueth · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · DSC 0-2 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-25T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 0-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2024-04-07T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 1-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2023-12-02T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 0-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · DSC 0-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2022-12-07T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 1-1 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2021-05-01T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 0-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2021-01-03T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 0-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2019-12-15T16:30:00.000Z · DSC 2-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
- 2019-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · DSC 1-0 Stade de Mbour (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.