· Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Dubai City vs Al Arabi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dubai City and 2.63 for Al Arabi, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Al Arabi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Arabi win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dubai City home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Arabi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.2%
- 0–25.9%
Recent form
Dubai City
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Hamriyah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Emirates Club · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Urooba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazira Al Hamra · 2-2 (D)
Al Arabi
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dibba Al-Fujairah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Gulf United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Urooba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Emirates Club · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · Dubai City 2-3 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2026-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Dubai City 2-1 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2025-10-27T12:50:00.000Z · Dubai City 2-2 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2024-05-10T14:05:00.000Z · Dubai City 2-4 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2023-12-30T12:55:00.000Z · Dubai City 0-1 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2023-04-08T18:00:00.000Z · Dubai City 0-3 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2022-11-25T12:45:00.000Z · Dubai City 0-1 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2022-02-26T13:30:00.000Z · Dubai City 1-2 Al Arabi (Division 1)
- 2021-11-13T12:45:00.000Z · Dubai City 0-0 Al Arabi (Division 1)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Arabi win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.