· Analysis updated 13:12 UTC
Dubočica vs Javor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dubočica and 1.80 for Javor, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Javor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Javor win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dubočica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Javor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Javor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Dubočica and 1.80 for Javor, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Dubočica
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)
Javor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grafičar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Cacak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-26T16:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 0-1 Javor (Prva Liga)
- 2024-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 1-1 Javor (Prva Liga)
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Cacak | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | Javor | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 25 |
| 6 | Napredak | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | FK Vozdovac | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Loznica | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Metalac GM | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Grafičar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Javor win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.