· Analysis updated 02:17 UTC
Dudley Redhead United vs Toronto Awaba Stags Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.72 expected goals for Dudley Redhead United and 1.09 for Toronto Awaba Stags, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Dudley Redhead United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dudley Redhead United win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
2.72 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toronto Awaba Stags away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dudley Redhead United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.72 goals for Dudley Redhead United and 1.09 for Toronto Awaba Stags, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–16.6%
Recent form
Dudley Redhead United
Toronto Awaba Stags
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Lake Macquarie · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Singleton Strikers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs West Wallsend · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Wallsend Red Devils · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dudley Redhead United win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.