Dugo Selo vs Grobničan Čavle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dugo Selo and 1.68 for Grobničan Čavle, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Grobničan Čavle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dugo Selo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grobničan Čavle away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dugo Selo win33%

Draw24%

Grobničan Čavle win44%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–29.0%
2–17.7%
0–17.5%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Dugo Selo

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavonija Požega · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)

Grobničan Čavle

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 2-0 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2025-11-16T13:00:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 1-1 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2025-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 4-1 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2024-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 0-2 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2024-03-09T14:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 0-0 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2023-09-01T14:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 2-2 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2023-05-26T15:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 3-3 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)
2022-11-19T12:30:00.000Z · Dugo Selo 1-1 Grobničan Čavle (Second NL)

Second NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uskok Klis	9	7	0	2	14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	6	1	3	8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	5	3	2	9	18
4	Jarun	9	3	6	0	5	15
5	Solin	10	4	3	3	4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	4	3	3	3	15
7	Trnje	10	4	2	4	2	14
8	Uljanik	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Zagora	10	2	6	2	1	12
11	Križevci	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Lucko	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.