· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Dugo Selo vs Jarun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Dugo Selo and 1.26 for Jarun, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Dugo Selo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dugo Selo win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dugo Selo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jarun away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dugo Selo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Dugo Selo and 1.26 for Jarun, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Dugo Selo
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Uskok Klis · 1-0 (W)
Jarun
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dugo Selo win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.