Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi · Analysis updated 19:12 UTC
Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dugopolje and 1.08 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Dubrava Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dugopolje home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubrava Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dubrava Zagreb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Dugopolje and 1.08 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Dugopolje
- 2026-10-11T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 0-0 (D)
Dubrava Zagreb
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Opatija · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Zmijavci | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Segesta Sisak | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Jadran LP | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Orijent 1919 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Opatija | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Mladost Ždralovi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Kustosija | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Sesvete | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Dubrava Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Vukovar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Dugopolje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.