Dugopolje vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Dugopolje and 1.00 for Karlovac 1919, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dugopolje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dugopolje win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dugopolje home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlovac 1919 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dugopolje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Dugopolje and 1.00 for Karlovac 1919, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dugopolje win55%

Draw24%

Karlovac 1919 win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.2%
1–111.2%
2–09.8%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Dugopolje

2026-10-11T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 0-0 (D)

Karlovac 1919

2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia Zmijavci	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Segesta Sisak	10	5	2	3	4	17
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	5	2	3	3	17
4	Jadran LP	9	4	4	1	5	16
5	HNK Cibalia	10	4	4	2	0	16
6	Orijent 1919	10	4	3	3	1	15
7	Opatija	10	4	2	4	0	14
8	Mladost Ždralovi	9	4	2	3	-1	14
9	Karlovac 1919	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Kustosija	10	3	4	3	0	13
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	4	0	6	0	12
12	Sesvete	10	3	2	5	0	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Vukovar	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Dugopolje	10	2	4	4	-2	10
16	Hrvace	10	2	2	6	-7	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dugopolje win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.