· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Dukagjini vs Drita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dukagjini and 0.70 for Drita, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Dukagjini the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.0% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukagjini home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Drita away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.2%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Dukagjini
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballkani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 2-2 (D)
Drita
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-2 Drita (Superliga)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 2-0 Drita (Superliga)
- 2026-03-18T12:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-2 Drita (Superliga)
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-1 Drita (Superliga)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-3 Drita (Superliga)
- 2025-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-0 Drita (Superliga)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 1-1 Drita (Superliga)
- 2025-02-12T11:30:00.000Z · Dukagjini 0-0 Drita (Cup)
- 2024-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 0-2 Drita (Superliga)
- 2024-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Dukagjini 0-2 Drita (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.