· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Dukagjini vs Feronikeli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dukagjini and 0.52 for Feronikeli, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Dukagjini the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dukagjini win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukagjini home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Feronikeli away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukagjini to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 27% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Dukagjini and 0.52 for Feronikeli, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.2%
- 2–014.6%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Dukagjini
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballkani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 2-2 (D)
Feronikeli
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vushtrria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballkani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dukagjini win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.