· Analysis updated 00:38 UTC
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 1.95 for Spartak Trnava, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Trnava win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukla Banská Bystrica home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Trnava away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Trnava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 1.95 for Spartak Trnava, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)
Spartak Trnava
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | AS Trencin | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 12 | Komárno | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.