· Referee F. Malarik · Analysis updated 22:48 UTC
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Žilina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 2.28 for Žilina, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Žilina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Žilina win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukla Banská Bystrica home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Žilina away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Žilina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 2.28 for Žilina, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)
Žilina
- 2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kostolné Kračany · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | AS Trencin | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 12 | Komárno | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Žilina win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.