Dukla Praha vs Arsenal Česká Lípa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.30 for Arsenal Česká Lípa, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Dukla Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dukla Praha win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dukla Praha home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Česká Lípa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukla Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Dukla Praha and 1.30 for Arsenal Česká Lípa, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dukla Praha win59%

Draw20%

Arsenal Česká Lípa win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.4%
2–07.3%
3–17.1%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Dukla Praha

2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 2-1 (W)

Arsenal Česká Lípa

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prostějov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vysočina Jihlava · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Karviná	11	8	0	3	11	24
2	Vysočina Jihlava	11	6	2	3	7	20
3	Dukla Praha	11	6	2	3	3	20
4	Ústí nad Labem	11	5	4	2	6	19
5	Vlašim	11	5	3	3	6	18
6	Příbram	11	4	5	2	2	17
7	Baník Ostrava II	11	4	2	5	3	14
8	Táborsko	11	3	5	3	0	14
9	Viktoria Žižkov	11	4	2	5	-7	14
10	Slavia Praha II	11	3	4	4	1	13
11	Kladno	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Opava	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Prostějov	11	1	7	3	-1	10
15	Třinec	11	2	4	5	-7	10
16	Hanácká	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dukla Praha win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.