Stadion Juliska · Referee T. Klima · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.14 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Dukla Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dukla Praha win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukla Praha home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Jablonec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukla Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Dukla Praha and 1.14 for FK Jablonec, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Dukla Praha
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysočina Jihlava · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Horní Ředice · 5-0 (W)
FK Jablonec
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dukla Praha win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.