Stadion Juliska · Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Dukla Praha vs Příbram Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.64 for Příbram, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Dukla Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dukla Praha win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukla Praha home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Příbram away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukla Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Dukla Praha and 1.64 for Příbram, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Dukla Praha
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 2-1 (W)
Příbram
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karviná | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Vysočina Jihlava | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Dukla Praha | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Labem | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Vlašim | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Příbram | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Slavia Praha II | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Baník Ostrava II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Táborsko | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Kladno | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Opava | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Viktoria Žižkov | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 | Arsenal Česká Lípa | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Třinec | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Prostějov | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Hanácká | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dukla Praha win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.